Start with safety, then do the sums
A pitch that cannot operate safely is a no-go, whatever the sales forecast.
Check the Met Office weather warnings, the organiser’s instructions and conditions at the actual site. Look beyond the rain symbol: gusts, standing water, slippery access and an exposed serving position can matter more than rainfall totals.
Use equipment within its manufacturer’s limits, including gazebos and anchoring systems. Protect electrical connections appropriately and keep access routes safe. There is no universal wind-speed threshold that makes every stall safe.
Ask the organiser who can close the site, when they will decide, and what happens to fees if they cancel. Get the answer in writing before loading.
Give the sheet two financial tests
First, ask: will opening leave me better off than cancelling?
Then ask: is this pitch profitable overall?
Those are different questions. A non-refundable fee already paid belongs in the full pitch profit calculation, but it should not bully you into spending more. Include any available refund or cancellation charge when comparing your options.
For the opening decision, list costs you can still avoid:
- Paid staff hours not yet committed, subject to contractual obligations.
- Travel, parking and additional fuel or power.
- Ingredients and packaging you would otherwise keep or use elsewhere.
- Any remaining pitch payment that cancellation would avoid.
Food already prepped is not automatically free, either. If it can safely sell at tomorrow’s booking, using it tonight has an opportunity cost.
Turn the forecast into an order target
Here is an illustrative calculation, not a trade benchmark:
- Average sale: £9
- Ingredients, packaging and transaction fees per order: £3
- Contribution towards the remaining opening costs: £6 per order
- Remaining costs of opening: £180
You need 30 orders to cover those remaining costs. Want another £60 surplus? You need 40 orders. If your own labour is not included in the costs, that surplus is not all profit.
Use a consistent VAT basis; if you are VAT-registered, work with sales excluding output VAT and costs net of recoverable VAT where applicable.
Now test whether 40 orders is credible. Look at your own wet services at that pitch, not the organiser’s sunny-day attendance estimate. A covered office courtyard with regular lunch customers behaves differently from an exposed browsing market.
If you have no comparable records, write down a cautious estimate and label it uncertain. A spreadsheet cannot turn a guess into evidence by wearing a tie.
Add an “adapt” option between go and no-go
Sometimes the right answer is a smaller service, not a cancelled one.
Your sheet should record:
- Decision deadline: before the next spending commitment, wherever possible.
- Minimum viable orders: the number your calculation requires.
- Demand evidence: previous wet-day sales, confirmed pre-orders or credible organiser updates.
- Adaptation: a shorter agreed service, smaller prep batch or tighter menu.
- Hard stops: unsafe conditions, site closure or demand too weak to justify remaining costs.
Choose menu reductions around shared ingredients and reliable sellers. Do not cut so deeply that service becomes slow or essential safety tasks become unmanageable.
Check whether shorter hours affect your booking terms before promising yourself an early escape.
Do these two things this week
Build the sheet for your next exposed pitch. Set the decision time now, including a second safety check before opening. Agree who makes the call.
Record one wet service properly. Note orders by hour, staffing, waste, weather and whether customers had somewhere sheltered to queue. Record your decision even if you cancel.
The aim is not to become fearless about November weather. It is to stop paying for the same lesson twice.